When will the Fed cut interest rates? Watch key inflation report this week.

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One of Americans' biggest burdens- high inflation - seemed to be in retreat the past few months until the latest report revealed an unwelcome flare-up in January. Will a lesser-known price measure that the Federal Reserve follows more closely deliver better news?

Consumer confidence , meanwhile, has been recovering from some inflation-induced blahs. Will the February report highlight more good vibes or another mood swing?

And home prices have been in the doldrums because of high mortgage rates -- although borrowing costs have eased a bit lately. Could that bear fruit in the latest reading on home prices?

This week's economic news should help answer those and other questions that matter for your pocketbook. Here's a sneak peek:

Are companies spending money?

30,000-foot view: Companies have been cautious about buying more factory machines, computers and other equipment recently because of high interest rates that make borrowing more expensive.

Protect your assets: Best high-yield savings accounts of 2023

But new orders for such long-lasting goods rose in November and December. Businesses have been encouraged by fading recession fears and the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts later this year , says Nomura economist Aichi Amemiya.

He estimates a key measure that excludes aircraft and defense-related items - a proxy for business investment - will show flat or slightly higher purchases in January when the Commerce Department releases the data on Tuesday .

You should care because: More capital spending means more growth for the economy and, generally, more hiring. After all, new machines typically need workers to run them.

Are house prices in the US dropping?

For home sellers, the past six months or so have been frustrating.

30,000-foot view: Monthly increases in home prices have steadily slowed since the middle of last year as rising mortgage rates discouraged housing sales.  In November, the average home price in major metro areas fell for the first time in 10 months (before seasonal adjustments), according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 cities.

Nomura expects more of the same in S&P’s release of the December figures on Tuesday .

You should care because: Mortgage rates generally have dipped since late last year and that should lift home sales and prices in the months ahead, Nomura says.

Graphic by James Powel

Is consumer confidence high right now?

Americans have been feeling better about their finances and the economy lately but that could change quickly if the outlook darkens.

30,000-foot view: In January, consumer confidence reached the highest level since late 2021 on easing inflation, strong job growth, rising stock prices and the prospect of lower interest rates. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the Conference Board will announce Tuesday that confidence held steady in February while Nomura expects a slight uptick.

You should care because: The measure affects household spending and the economy.

Is US inflation cooling down?

Inflation seemed to be on a steady downward path until the Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI) raised concerns earlier this month.

A core measure of the CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rose a sharp 0.4% in January, keeping the annual increase at 3.9%. That led some economists to push out their forecast for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut from May to a bit later this year.

30,000-foot view: On Thursday, the Commerce Department releases a different inflation gauge called the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The Fed keeps a closer eye on the core PCE index than the core CPI and economists expect a similar 0.4% rise in that PCE reading as another jump in rent as well as services such as health care, finance and insurance offsets roughly flat goods prices, Barclays says.

You should care because: That rise would be the largest monthly increase in a year, Nomura notes, but would still nudge down the annual increase from 2.9% to 2.8%, a bit closer to the Fed’s 2% goal. And economists still expect inflation to continue to drop in the coming months as rent increases slow.

The PCE report is also expected to show that consumer spending increased a modest 0.2% last month, well below December's 0.7% leap.

Is US manufacturing in a recession?

The economy has been strong and resilient. But the nation's manufacturers have barely felt it.

30,000-foot view: U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for 15 straight months as consumers have shifted their spending from goods to services since the pandemic and businesses have grappled with high interest rates and bloated inventories.

You should care because: On Friday , the Institute for Supply Management is expected to announce that factory activity shrank yet again in February but the total activity level – which includes new orders, production, jobs and other elements – was likely the highest since October 2022. Nomura anticipates an even bigger improvement to just below expansion territory.

Indiana girl, 7, dies after getting trapped in sand while on a Florida beach vacation

A 7-year-old Indiana girl died and her 9-year-old brother was hospitalized after the sand hole they were digging in at a Florida beach collapsed on top of them, authorities said.

Sloan and Maddox Mattingly were playing at a beach in Lauderdale-By-The-Sea when they became trapped in the sand, the Broward Sheriff’s Office said. They were on vacation with their parents.

Multiple agencies responded to a call about the incident around 3:16 p.m. Tuesday. Cellphone video obtained by NBC South Florida showed several beachgoers using their hands to try and free the children.

Rescuers used support boards to prevent the sand from collapsing further and shovels to dig the siblings out from the hole that was about 5 feet deep, Sandra King, a spokesperson for Pompano Beach Fire Rescue, told the news station.

It's not clear how long the children were trapped before they were rescued. Staff members at the town hall said the beach does not have lifeguards.

Both children were taken to the hospital, where Sloan later died. Maddox is stable, NBC affiliate WPTV of West Palm Beach reported.

"Our hearts are heavy in LBTS today after learning two children were trapped in the sand," the Town of Lauderdale-By-The-Sea said in a statement on Facebook.

The incident prompted a warning from the American Lifeguard Association about the dangers of sand holes. The association also said it is advocating for increased beach patrols in areas known for sand digging and requested that beach patrols enhance its emergency response training.

"The recent incident in Lauderdale-by-the-Sea is a heart-wrenching reminder of why we must work together to keep our beaches safe," said Bernard J. Fisher II, the association's director of health and safety. "By implementing these measures and fostering a community of safety and awareness, we can prevent future tragedies and ensure that our beaches remain places of joy and recreation for everyone."

Minyvonne Burke is a senior breaking news reporter for NBC News.

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Why elementary school teachers should consider doing report cards a little bit differently..

It’s time to change the way we write report cards to young students, as early as kindergarten. Instead of writing about them, we educators should write to them.

Businesses have learned that performance reviews are most effective when  written in the second person rather than the third person—to you rather than about you. This is a seemingly small linguistic shift. Ozlum Ayduk and Ethan Kross, professors of psychology, found that in the context of self-talk, it’s powerful to use someone’s name. But this understanding has not yet trickled down to report cards, our earliest forms of assessment and feedback.

Let’s imagine a second grader who just completed their first term at a new school. The teacher writes in the report card, “Bonnie is distracted and drawn to talking with friends frequently during math class.” Another section reads, “Bonnie calls out frequently during read-alouds, and while I appreciate her ideas, raising a quiet hand is the expectation in class.”

Perhaps these excerpts remind you of your own childhood report cards? They reminded me of my own. This language, which I modeled after countless elementary report card narratives, is ineffective and unconstructive.

Here is what second-grade Bonnie’s feedback could sound like: “Bonnie, I notice that you are eager to talk with friends during math class, and I am worried that you miss a lot of our lessons. I am wondering how we can assure you focus. We tried a new seating arrangement, but I’d like you to work with me on additional solutions.”

In this example, the teacher has respectfully addressed the student directly. The teacher empathizes and acknowledges efforts already made, and includes the student in finding solutions. While certainly not foolproof, this strategy, which honors the child’s perspective and role in their own learning, is sure to land differently with both student and guardian.

Researchers in the field argue that feedback to students from teachers is crucial to motivation and learning. But that feedback, when written exclusively in the third person, soars past students to guardians.

As a former elementary school teacher, I turned to my community for their perspective on the matter. Most shared that they had never heard of reports being written to students, rather than about them. Those who have seen a second-person model of feedback teach secondary grades (sixth grade and higher), and two of those teachers said they ask students to self-assess and collaborate on their scores.

All but one of the elementary (K–5) teachers I surveyed said their reports were written in the third person.

A teacher-authored article titled “Why I Don’t Let My Kids Read Their Report Cards” from the website Today’s Parent shares the opposing point of view: “I spend a lot of time writing report cards to give families a clear picture of how their child is progressing. But those comments are written for parents. Younger kids won’t fully understand what the comments mean and will often stop at the letter grades—which means they miss out on the important context of how that grade was achieved.”

While it’s true that for many teachers, the report card comments are written for guardians—that’s what schools mandate—it baffles me that we don’t interrogate this process. If it’s context that’s lacking, let’s give students the context. Let’s construct our feedback for them, in addition to their guardians. With sufficient professional development and feedback on language, this shift could improve student motivation and concepts of self-growth.

Asked about the idea of second-person report card narratives, Dr. Rebecca Silverman, an associate professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Education and a mother of three, said, “Even young children appreciate when teachers acknowledge their growth, especially when they put in a lot of effort to learn something new or be able to do something that was initially hard for them.”

It’s true that families still need to hear from teachers about their children’s progress via report cards. But their young age shouldn’t exclude children from hearing directly from their teachers as well. Dr. Meryl Lipton, a behavioral pediatric neurologist, commented, “Students as young as kindergartners would benefit from refocusing the audience of report cards. This creates important opportunities for self-growth and furthers communication between student and teacher.” If report cards are our earliest performance reviews, then let’s shift our perspective to include students in their own feedback.

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A report found $10bn is needed over 40 years for bus services which carry 40% of NSW public transport passengers but receive just 2% of expenditure.

Sydney’s worst bus routes ‘predominantly’ located in western suburbs, report finds

Study found 235 local routes failed to meet ‘minimum service standards’ for frequency as well as night and weekend operation

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A damning report into bus services in New South Wales says $10bn is needed over the next four decades to boost the network which has huge gaps in Sydney’s western suburbs where population growth is strongest.

The network was ill-equipped to meet the needs of an expanding Sydney , the latest report from the NSW Bus Industry Taskforce has found.

The second report by John Lee found there was an “urgent need” to fund “essential minimum local or school services in the short term”.

It found many suburbs in western Sydney were under-serviced while at the same time absorbing much of the city’s growth.

It described the region as “an area with limited existing public transport and where the private car is currently and is likely to remain, the predominant transport mode until a viable alternative public transport solution is available”.

The report stated across Sydney 235 local routes failed to meet “minimum service standards” and that services to these routes should increase to every 30 minutes. These were “predominantly located in western Sydney”.

“Especially in western Sydney, outer metropolitan and regional areas, some local routes may only operate as frequently as every two hours or less, and some do not operate during evenings or on weekends.”

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The report found many bus services in western Sydney “do not cater well for shift workers and those working in the nighttime economy”.

The report made extensive recommendations, including urging the government to upgrade bus services that carry 40% of all public transport passengers but receive 2% of transport capital expenditure.

It stated Sydney needed 40 “rapid routes”, 80 “frequent routes” and 1,000 “local services”. The city currently has three rapid routes, 17 frequent routes and only 600 local routes.

The report also argued for an increase in new routes in “growth precincts”, specifically through Penrith, Blacktown, Fairfield, Campbelltown and Camden, where many new homes are being built.

Lee is a former chief executive of the State Transit Authority who also ran private bus companies before being appointed to lead the taskforce in May 2023.

He said the lack of investment in the bus network was “shameful” – describing it as the “forgotten mode of public transport”.

“Buses are the largest public transport mode in the state and it needs well-thought-through plans to be implemented to fix this neglect,” Lee said in a statement.

“We have recommended a strong, detailed and scalable plan for the government to consider. That means more money for services, bus stops, road priority and smart people delivering the plan.”

The NSW government responded by asking Transport for NSW to examine how some of the recommendations could be implemented – including developing short- and long-term bus plans, improving access to zero emissions buses and working with councils to improve their capacity to enhance public transport infrastructure.

The state transport minister, Jo Haylen, said the report’s recommendations could help deliver “the biggest improvement to bus services that NSW has seen in a generation”.

“For too long bus services have been the forgotten mode of transport in NSW. Tens of thousands of passengers rely on the bus network and we need to do better.

“Too many growing communities were neglected because the former government had no plan for what their future bus services would look like. We now have a plan to make sure those communities get the bus services they need.”

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The third and final report from the taskforce is due by May.

The tram and bus divisional secretary of the Rail, Tram and Bus Union, David Babineau, said the union welcomed the report, but believed its focus should be on the effects of privatisation.

“Addressing the myriad of issues created by privatisation needs to be a priority if we’re going to improve our bus services long term,” he said.

“That includes fixing the two-tiered workforces, chronic underpayment and other workplace issues which are playing a big part in the recruitment and retention issues we’re facing”.

It comes as a report from the University of Western Sydney argues that an inefficient transport system is holding back the economy in the region.

The Unlimited Potential report from the Centre for Western Sydney says “Sydney’s public transport system, designed to connect the east and the west, inadequately does this.”

The report urges the state government to “prioritise extending Western Sydney Airport Metro to the north to Tallawong, to the south via Leppington, and to the east to Westmead.”

The report also outlines how the NSW government could support the region’s booming economy by focusing on future industries and enhancing skills.

Western Sydney makes up almost a quarter of the NSW economy, and is the third-largest city economy, with a GRP of just over $155bn in 2021–22.

Part of the reason for its growth is its rapid increase in population, forecast to reach over 3.4 million by 2041.

WSU Chancellor, Prof Jennifer Westacott, launched the plan in Parramatta on Thursday and said the region was on the verge of an economic transformation.

“We can no longer rely on population growth to drive the economy, but we need to invest in our people and jobs of the future.”

“I want Western Sydney locals to have high-paying jobs, access to the skills they need, and no longer be forced to drive 40 kilometres each day to work,” she said.

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