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The State of Globalization in 2021

  • Steven A. Altman
  • Caroline R. Bastian

case studies on globalisation

Trade, capital, and information flows have stabilized, recovered, and even grown in the past year.

As the coronavirus swept the world, closing borders and halting international trade and capital flows, there were questions about the pandemic’s lasting impact on globalization. But a close look at the recent data paints a much more optimistic picture. While international travel remains significantly down and is not expected to rebound until 2023, cross-border trade, capital, and information flows have largely stabilized, recovered, or even grown over the last year. The bottom line for business is that Covid-19 has not knocked globalization down to anywhere close to what would be required for strategists to narrow their focus to their home countries or regions.

Cross-border flows plummeted in 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic swept the world, reinforcing doubts about the future of globalization. As we move into 2021, the latest data paint a clearer — and more hopeful — picture. Global business is not going away, but the landscape is shifting, with important implications for strategy and management.

case studies on globalisation

  • Steven A. Altman is a senior research scholar, adjunct assistant professor, and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at the NYU Stern Center for the Future of Management .
  • CB Caroline R. Bastian is a research scholar at the DHL Initiative on Globalization.

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A Closer Look: Cases of Globalization

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Globalization expands and accelerates the movement and exchange of ideas and commodities over vast distances. It is common to discuss the phenomenon from an abstract, global perspective, but in fact globalization's most important impacts are often highly localized. This page explores the various manifestations of interconnectedness in the world, noting how globalization affects real people and places.

Articles and Documents

Chinese imports and contraband make bolivia's textile trade a casualty of globalization (july 6, 2012).

Domestic manufacturing in Bolivia has been crushed by the influx of cheap foreign goods, mainly from China. Bolivian products cannot compete in the global market because of the small scale production, the strict labor law which keeps labor cost high, and the frequent political unrest which hurt competitiveness by raising costs. The Bolivian economy is reliant on raw material extraction, and its trade deficit keeps widening. Although the government is making an effort to raise tariffs and create state-owned companies to save jobs, globalization seems to have caused more bad than good in Bolivia. (Associated Press)

Is France on Course to Bid Adieu to Globalization? (July 21, 2011)

Many in France are blaming globalization for causing high youth unemployment and a stagnated, post recessionary economy. With the 2012 presidential election approaching, the theme of “deglobalization” appears to be growing in popularity due to its nationalistic appeal. Left-wing candidates, including member of Parliament Arnaud Montebourg, are advocating European-based protectionism, and saying that “globalization” has caused France’s high rates of youth unemployment, destroyed natural resources, and made France vulnerable to the fluctuations of interconnected financial markets. While Montebourg is not a likely front-runner for the presidency, his surprising popularity has highlighted the French peoples’ disillusionment and has prompted a discussion of globalization. Ideally, this will “force politicians to work harder on their answers”, and they will work to improve France’s economic recovery plans and their role in a globalized system. (YaleGlobal Online)

350 Movement Video from Bolivia's Climate Summit (April 22, 2010)

Immigrants now see better prospects back home (december 8, 2009), the human effect of globalization (august 30, 2009), following the trail of toxic trash (august 17, 2009), will the crisis reverse global migration (july 17, 2009), in many business schools, the bottom line is in english (april 10, 2007), globalization and child labor: the cause can also be a cure (march 13, 2007), landless workers movement: the difficult construction of a new world (september 29, 2006), for african cotton farmers, more crops equal less pay (august 15, 2006), meet the losers of globalization (march 8, 2006), thanks to corporations instead of democracy we get baywatch (september 13, 2005), global health priorities – priorities of the wealthy (april 22, 2005), guatemala: supermarket giants crush farmers (december 28, 2004).

This article looks at the effects of economic liberalization in Latin America's food retailing system and identifies small scale farmers as the "losers of globalization." Corporate transformations of the regional food sector and its failed trickle-down economics have not generated wealth but rather increased the social inequalities in the region, forcing smaller growers to migrate. ( New York Times )

Campesinos vs Oil Industry: Bolivia Takes On Goliath of Globalization (December 5, 2004)

Privatizations: the end of a cycle of plundering (november 1, 2004), globalization: europe's wary embrace (november 1, 2004), latin american indigenous movements in the context of globalization (october 11, 2004), mixed blessings of the megacities (september 24, 2004), dominican republic: us trade pact fails pregnant women - cafta fails to protect against rampant job discrimination (april 22, 2004), workers face uphill battle on road to globalization (january 27, 2004), money for nothing and calls for free (february 17, 2004), the next great wall (january 19, 2004).

This article examines the growth of geographical, physical and, increasingly, digital immigration barriers to the free movement of people between rich and poor countries. ( TomDispatch.com )

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Market Competition, Earnings Management, and Persistence in Accounting Profitability Around the World

We examine how cross-country differences in product, capital, and labor market competition, and earnings management affect mean reversion in accounting return on assets. Using a sample of 48,465 unique firms from 49 countries, we find that accounting returns mean revert faster in countries where there is more product and capital market competition, as predicted by economic theory. Country differences in labor market competition and earnings management are also related to mean reversion in accounting returns—but the relation varies with firm performance. Country labor competition increases mean reversion when unexpected returns are positive, but dampens it when unexpected returns are negative. Accounting returns in countries with higher earnings management mean revert more slowly for profitable firms and more rapidly for loss firms. Thus, earnings management incentives to slow or speed up mean reversion in accounting returns are accentuated in countries where there is a high propensity for earnings management. Overall, these findings suggest that country factors explain mean reversion in accounting returns and are therefore relevant for firm valuation.

We examine how cross-country differences in product, capital, and labor market competition, and earnings management affect mean reversion in accounting return on assets. Using a sample of 48,465 unique firms from 49 countries, we find that accounting returns mean revert faster in countries where there is more product and capital market...

case studies on globalisation

Spanning the Institutional Abyss: The Intergovernmental Network and the Governance of Foreign Direct Investment

Global economic transactions such as foreign direct investment must extend over an institutional abyss between the jurisdiction, and therefore protection, of the states involved. Intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), whose members are states, represent an important attempt to span this abyss. IGOs are mandated variously to smooth economic transactions, facilitate global cooperation, and promote cultural contact and awareness. We use a network approach to demonstrate that the connections between two countries through joint-membership in the same IGOs are associated with a large positive influence on the foreign direct investment that flows between them. Moreover, we show that this effect occurs not only in the case of IGOs that focus on economic issues, but also on those with social and cultural mandates. This demonstrates that relational governance is important and feasible in the global context and for the most risky transactions. Finally we examine the interdependence between the IGO network and the domestic institutions of states. The interdependence between these global and domestic institutional forms is complex, with target-country democracy being a substitute for economic IGOs, but a complement for social and cultural IGOs.

Global economic transactions such as foreign direct investment must extend over an institutional abyss between the jurisdiction, and therefore protection, of the states involved. Intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), whose members are states, represent an important attempt to span this abyss. IGOs are mandated variously to smooth economic...

case studies on globalisation

Ethnic Innovation and U.S. Multinational Firm Activity

This paper studies the impact that immigrant innovators have on the global activities of U.S. firms by analyzing detailed data on patent applications and on the operations of the foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational firms. The results indicate that increases in the share of a firm's innovation performed by inventors of a particular ethnicity are associated with increases in the share of that firm's affiliate activity in their native countries. Ethnic innovators also appear to facilitate the disintegration of innovative activity across borders and to allow U.S. multinationals to form new affiliates abroad without the support of local joint venture partners. Thus, this paper points out that immigration can enhance the competitiveness of multinational firms.

This paper studies the impact that immigrant innovators have on the global activities of U.S. firms by analyzing detailed data on patent applications and on the operations of the foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational firms. The results indicate that increases in the share of a firm's innovation performed by inventors of a particular ethnicity...

case studies on globalisation

Multinational Enterprises and Incomplete Institutions: The Demandingness of Minimum Moral Standards

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) operate across countries that vary widely in their legal, political, and regulatory institutions. One question that arises is whether there are certain minimum standards that ought to guide managers in their decision making independently of local institutional requirements, especially when institutional arrangements are incomplete. This chapter examines what follows if managers recognize two kinds of duties of forbearance in their decision making that are commonly held to be among the most minimal of moral duties: the duty not to harm and the duty not to violate the liberty of others. The chapter concludes that the standards for MNEs may be more demanding than what the minimalist nature of duties of forbearance initially would suggest.

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) operate across countries that vary widely in their legal, political, and regulatory institutions. One question that arises is whether there are certain minimum standards that ought to guide managers in their decision making independently of local institutional requirements, especially when institutional...

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Finance and Social Responsibility in the Informal Economy: Institutional Voids, Globalization and Microfinance Institutions

We examine the heterogeneous effects of globalization on the interest rate setting by microfinance institutions (MFIs) around the world. We consider MFIs as a mechanism to overcome the institutional void of credit for small entrepreneurs in developing and emerging economies. Using a large global panel of MFIs from 119 countries, we find that social globalization that embraces egalitarian institutions on average reduces MFIs' interest rates. In contrast, economic globalization that embraces neoliberal institutions on average increases MFIs' interest rates. Moreover, the proportions of female borrowers and of poorer borrowers negatively moderate the relationship between social globalization and MFI interest rate, and positively moderate the relationship between economic globalization and MFI interest rate. This paper contributes to understanding how globalization processes can both ameliorate and exacerbate challenges of institutional voids in emerging and developing economies.

We examine the heterogeneous effects of globalization on the interest rate setting by microfinance institutions (MFIs) around the world. We consider MFIs as a mechanism to overcome the institutional void of credit for small entrepreneurs in developing and emerging economies. Using a large global panel of MFIs from 119 countries, we find that...

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The globalization of business has long encouraged Harvard Business School (HBS) faculty to research international business practices and the effects of globalization. Seminal contributions - Christopher Bartlett on managing across borders , Michael Porter on competition in global industries , and Louis Wells on foreign investment in emerging markets - helped pave today’s global research path. Supported by eight Global Research Centers that facilitate our contact with global companies and the collection of international data, key investigations concentrate on the effectiveness of management practices in global organizations; cross-cultural learning and adaptation processes; the challenges of taking companies global; emerging-market companies with global potential; and international political economy and its impact on economic development.

The Global Initiative builds on a legacy of global engagement by supporting faculty, students, and alumni in their work, and encouraging a global outlook in research, study, and practice.

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Burning at Europe’s Borders invites readers inside the lives of the world’s largest population of migrants and refugees — the hundre...

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In homes and brothels around the world, migrant women are selling a unique commodity: care. Care for Sale is an in-depth ethnography of a group middle...

case studies on globalisation

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Indebted examines the economic and political factors that led to the Greek debt crisis, investigating the effects of financial pressures from internat...

case studies on globalisation

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Labor and Legality is an ethnographic account of the lives of ten undocumented workers in Chicago, originally published in 2010. The book seeks to pus...

case studies on globalisation

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Low Wage in High Tech focuses on the lives and livelihoods of housekeepers, drivers, and security guards who work in India's multinational technology ...

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Marriage After Migration is a compelling ethnography centered around the stories of five women in rural Mexico as they work to keep their communities and families together when their spouses migrate abroad. Through rich and highly readable narratives about the lives of these women, author Nora Haenn explores how international migration affects kinship ties and rewrites gender roles. Haenn's research illuminates aspects of migration and globalizat...

Marriage After Migration is a compelling ethnography centered around the stories of five women in rural Mexico as they work to keep their communities ...

case studies on globalisation

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Generational anxieties over what will happen to the young are unfolding starkly in Sierra Leone, where the civil war that raged between 1991 and 2002-characterized by the extreme youthfulness of the rebel movement-triggered mass fear of that generation being "lost." Even now, fifteen years later with these children grown into young adults, "children of the war" are regarded with suspicion. These fears stem largely from young people's easy embrace...

Generational anxieties over what will happen to the young are unfolding starkly in Sierra Leone, where the civil war that raged between 1991 and 2002-...

case studies on globalisation

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Waste and Wealth examines questions of value, labor, and morality underlining the translocal waste networks in Spring District, Vietnam. Engaging with waste as an economic category of global significance, this book provides an account of migrant laborers' complex negotiations with political economic forces to build their economic, social, and moral life from their marginalized position. It thereby makes visible how women and men seek to construct...

Waste and Wealth examines questions of value, labor, and morality underlining the translocal waste networks in Spring District, Vietnam. Engaging with...

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A Global version of Locals (a case study on globalization, media & the socio-cultural trends in Türkiye)

  • Original Paper
  • Published: 06 March 2023
  • Volume 3 , article number  54 , ( 2023 )

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  • Eyad Trabulsi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5123-2897 1  

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Globalization creates opportunities to local communities if it is addressed via an organized process and by well-structured institutions. Economy has played a key role in promoting globalization, thus, other aspects/dimensions of globalization (i.e. Socio-Cultural, Communicative, and Political) might be more essential for globalization in order to influence local communities. The paper explores the context of trends captured in the Turkish urban & national plans, their potential consequences (opportunities and challenges), and taking into consideration ‘ globalization ’ impact within their broader dimensions (e.g. Socio-Cultural); in order to achieve this mission, and to identify the future trends, the paper conducts: Text /discourse analysis, capturing the most frequently used words in 2 of the main Turkish urban /national plans; Keywords relevance measure. The paper also draws future scenarios, based on the captured trends, forecasting the future potentials and risks.The paper question is: How globalization trends residing in Turkish urban & national plans influence the Future Scenarios of Türkiye? The study is important in order to draw attention to the significance of Socio-Cultural dimension of globalization in shaping the future of nations, and to the profound consequences of its impact. It demonstrates how powerful is Socio-Cultural aspect of urban /national planning in preparing the ground for better future, in light of the significant challenges of globalization on local communities /states.

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Trabulsi, E. A Global version of Locals (a case study on globalization, media & the socio-cultural trends in Türkiye). SN Soc Sci 3 , 54 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43545-023-00635-5

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Economic Consequences of Globalisation: Case Study of Thailand

Economic Consequences of Globalisation: Case Study of Thailand

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The paper reviews empirical works examining the effect of globalisation in Thailand, beginning with a discussion of its integration into the economy. Three drivers of economic globalisation are emphasised: international trade, foreign direct investment, and cross-border labour mobility. The findings point to globalisation’s potential to create a favourable economic impact. Opening up to international trade could promote productivity and drive economic growth. Large foreign direct investment inflows enticed by export-oriented industrialisation are likely to generate horizontal technological spillovers within a given industry; vertical spillovers through the linkages were not a robust result. There is no evidence that employing foreign workers retards firm productivity; rather, the opposite is the case. Well-performing firms are in a position to attract foreign workers and maintain production capacity. Global production sharing (GPS) does not necessarily mean the participating countries are trapped at the low end of the quality ladder. The Thai experience supports the case for further globalising its economy. Any possible side effects of globalisation can be mitigated by other policies such as strengthening the social safety net. 

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  • Laura S. Borma 13 ,
  • Da Nian   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2320-5223 3 ,
  • Niklas Boers   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-9034 3 , 14 ,
  • Susanna B. Hecht 15 ,
  • Hans ter Steege   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8738-2659 16 , 17 ,
  • Julia Arieira 18 ,
  • Isabella L. Lucas 19 ,
  • Erika Berenguer   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8157-8792 20 ,
  • José A. Marengo 21 , 22 , 23 ,
  • Luciana V. Gatti 13 ,
  • Caio R. C. Mattos   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8635-3901 24 &
  • Marina Hirota   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1958-3651 1 , 12 , 25  

Nature volume  626 ,  pages 555–564 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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  • Climate and Earth system modelling
  • Ecosystem ecology
  • Ecosystem services
  • Sustainability

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1 , 2 , 3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system 1 . Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

The Amazon forest is a complex system of interconnected species, ecosystems and human cultures that contributes to the well-being of people globally 1 . The Amazon forest holds more than 10% of Earth’s terrestrial biodiversity, stores an amount of carbon equivalent to 15–20 years of global CO 2 emissions (150–200 Pg C), and has a net cooling effect (from evapotranspiration) that helps to stabilize the Earth’s climate 1 , 2 , 3 . The forest contributes up to 50% of rainfall in the region and is crucial for moisture supply across South America 4 , allowing other biomes and economic activities to thrive in regions that would otherwise be more arid, such as the Pantanal wetlands and the La Plata river basin 1 . Large parts of the Amazon forest, however, are projected to experience mass mortality events due to climatic and land use-related disturbances in the coming decades 5 , 6 , potentially accelerating climate change through carbon emissions and feedbacks with the climate system 2 , 3 . These impacts would also involve irreversible loss of biodiversity, socioeconomic and cultural values 1 , 7 , 8 , 9 . The Amazon is home to more than 40 million people, including 2.2 million Indigenous peoples of more than 300 ethnicities, as well as afrodescendent and local traditional communities 1 . Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) would be harmed by forest loss in terms of their livelihoods, lifeways and knowledge systems that inspire societies globally 1 , 7 , 9 .

Understanding the risk of such catastrophic behaviour requires addressing complex factors that shape ecosystem resilience 10 . A major question is whether a large-scale collapse of the Amazon forest system could actually happen within the twenty-first century, and if this would be associated with a particular tipping point. Here we synthesize evidence from paleorecords, observational data and modelling studies of critical drivers of stress on the system. We assess potential thresholds of those drivers and the main feedbacks that could push the Amazon forest towards a tipping point. From examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we analyse the most plausible ecosystem trajectories that may lead to alternative stable states 10 . Moreover, inspired by the framework of ‘planetary boundaries’ 11 , we identify climatic and land use boundaries that reveal a safe operating space for the Amazon forest system in the Anthropocene epoch 12 .

Theory and concepts

Over time, environmental conditions fluctuate and may cause stress on ecosystems (for example, lack of water for plants). When stressing conditions intensify, some ecosystems may change their equilibrium state gradually, whereas others may shift abruptly between alternative stable states 10 . A ‘tipping point’ is the critical threshold value of an environmental stressing condition at which a small disturbance may cause an abrupt shift in the ecosystem state 2 , 3 , 13 , 14 , accelerated by positive feedbacks 15 (see Extended Data Table 1 ). This type of behaviour in which the system gets into a phase of self-reinforcing (runaway) change is often referred to as ‘critical transition’ 16 . As ecosystems approach a tipping point, they often lose resilience while still remaining close to equilibrium 17 . Thus, monitoring changes in ecosystem resilience and in key environmental conditions may enable societies to manage and avoid critical transitions. We adopt the concept of ‘ecological resilience’ 18 (hereafter ‘resilience’), which refers to the ability of an ecosystem to persist with similar structure, functioning and interactions, despite disturbances that push it to an alternative stable state. The possibility that alternative stable states (or bistability) may exist in a system has important implications, because the crossing of tipping points may be irreversible for the time scales that matter to societies 10 . Tropical terrestrial ecosystems are a well-known case in which critical transitions between alternative stable states may occur (Extended Data Fig. 1 ).

Past dynamics

The Amazon system has been mostly covered by forest throughout the Cenozoic era 19 (for 65 million years). Seven million years ago, the Amazon river began to drain the massive wetlands that covered most of the western Amazon, allowing forests to expand over grasslands in that region. More recently, during the drier and cooler conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum 20 (LGM) (around 21,000 years ago) and of the mid-Holocene epoch 21 (around 6,000 years ago), forests persisted even when humans were already present in the landscape 22 . Nonetheless, savannas expanded in peripheral parts of the southern Amazon basin during the LGM and mid-Holocene 23 , as well as in the northeastern Amazon during the early Holocene (around 11,000 years ago), probably influenced by drier climatic conditions and fires ignited by humans 24 , 25 . Throughout the core of the Amazon forest biome, patches of white-sand savanna also expanded in the past 20,000–7,000 years, driven by sediment deposition along ancient rivers 26 , and more recently (around 800 years ago) owing to Indigenous fires 27 . However, during the past 3,000 years, forests have been mostly expanding over savanna in the southern Amazon driven by increasingly wet conditions 28 .

Although palaeorecords suggest that a large-scale Amazon forest collapse did not occur within the past 65 million years 19 , they indicate that savannas expanded locally, particularly in the more seasonal peripheral regions when fires ignited by humans were frequent 23 , 24 . Patches of white-sand savanna also expanded within the Amazon forest owing to geomorphological dynamics and fires 26 , 27 . Past drought periods were usually associated with much lower atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, which may have reduced water-use efficiency of trees 29 (that is, trees assimilated less carbon during transpiration). However, these periods also coincided with cooler temperatures 20 , 21 , which probably reduced water demand by trees 30 . Past drier climatic conditions were therefore very different from the current climatic conditions, in which observed warming trends may exacerbate drought impacts on the forest by exposing trees to unprecedented levels of water stress 31 , 32 .

Global change impacts on forest resilience

Satellite observations from across the Amazon suggest that forest resilience has been decreasing since the early 2000s 33 , possibly as a result of global changes. In this section, we synthesize three global change impacts that vary spatially and temporally across the Amazon system, affecting forest resilience and the risk of critical transitions.

Regional climatic conditions

Within the twenty-first century, global warming may cause long-term changes in Amazonian climatic conditions 2 . Human greenhouse gas emissions continue to intensify global warming, but the warming rate also depends on feedbacks in the climate system that remain uncertain 2 , 3 . Recent climate models of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) agree that in the coming decades, rainfall conditions will become more seasonal in the eastern and southern Amazonian regions, and temperatures will become higher across the entire Amazon 1 , 2 . By 2050, models project that a significant increase in the number of consecutive dry days by 10−30 days and in annual maximum temperatures by 2–4 °C, depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenario 2 . These climatic conditions could expose the forest to unprecedented levels of vapour pressure deficit 31 and consequently water stress 30 .

Satellite observations of climatic variability 31 confirm model projections 2 , showing that since the early 1980s, the Amazonian region has been warming significantly at an average rate of 0.27 °C per decade during the dry season, with the highest rates of up to 0.6 °C per decade in the centre and southeast of the biome (Fig. 1a ). Only a few small areas in the west of the biome are significantly cooling by around 0.1 °C per decade (Fig. 1a ). Dry season mean temperature is now more than 2 °C higher than it was 40 years ago in large parts of the central and southeastern Amazon. If trends continue, these areas could potentially warm by over 4 °C by 2050. Maximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome (Extended Data Fig. 2 ), exposing the forest 34 and local peoples 35 to potentially unbearable heat. Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity 36 and causing widespread leaf damage 34 .

figure 1

a , Changes in the dry season (July–October) mean temperature reveal widespread warming, estimated using simple regressions between time and temperature observed between 1981 and 2020 (with P  < 0.1). b , Potential ecosystem stability classes estimated for year 2050, adapted from current stability classes (Extended Data Fig. 1b ) by considering only areas with significant regression slopes between time and annual rainfall observed from 1981 through 2020 (with P  < 0.1) (see Extended Data Fig. 3 for areas with significant changes). c , Repeated extreme drought events between 2001–2018 (adapted from ref. 39 ). d , Road network from where illegal deforestation and degradation may spread. e , Protected areas and Indigenous territories reduce deforestation and fire disturbances. f , Ecosystem transition potential (the possibility of forest shifting into an alternative structural or compositional state) across the Amazon biome by year 2050 inferred from compounding disturbances ( a – d ) and high-governance areas ( e ). We excluded accumulated deforestation until 2020 and savannas. Transition potential rises with compounding disturbances and varies as follows: less than 0 (in blue) as low; between 1 and 2 as moderate (in yellow); more than 2 as high (orange–red). Transition potential represents the sum of: (1) slopes of dry season mean temperature (as in a , multiplied by 10); (2) ecosystem stability classes estimated for year 2050 (as in b ), with 0 for stable forest, 1 for bistable and 2 for stable savanna; (3) accumulated impacts from extreme drought events, with 0.2 for each event; (4) road proximity as proxy for degrading activities, with 1 for pixels within 10 km from a road; (5) areas with higher governance within protected areas and Indigenous territories, with −1 for pixels inside these areas. For more details, see  Methods .

Since the early 1980s, rainfall conditions have also changed 31 . Peripheral and central parts of the Amazon forest are drying significantly, such as in the southern Bolivian Amazon, where annual rainfall reduced by up to 20 mm yr −1 (Extended Data Fig. 3a ). By contrast, parts of the western and eastern Amazon forest are becoming wetter, with annual rainfall increasing by up to 20 mm yr −1 . If these trends continue, ecosystem stability (as in Extended Data Fig. 1 ) will probably change in parts of the Amazon by 2050, reshaping forest resilience to disturbances (Fig. 1b and Extended Data Fig. 3b ). For example, 6% of the biome may change from stable forest to a bistable regime in parts of the southern and central Amazon. Another 3% of the biome may pass the critical threshold in annual rainfall into stable savanna in the southern Bolivian Amazon. Bistable areas covering 8% of the biome may turn into stable forest in the western Amazon (Peru and Bolivia), thus becoming more resilient to disturbances. For comparison with satellite observations, we used projections of ecosystem stability by 2050 based on CMIP6 model ensembles for a low (SSP2–4.5) and a high (SSP5–8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario (Extended Data Fig. 4 and Supplementary Table 1 ). An ensemble with the 5 coupled models that include a dynamic vegetation module indicates that 18–27% of the biome may transition from stable forest to bistable and that 2–6% may transition to stable savanna (depending on the scenario), mostly in the northeastern Amazon. However, an ensemble with all 33 models suggests that 35–41% of the biome could become bistable, including large areas of the southern Amazon. The difference between both ensembles is possibly related to the forest–rainfall feedback included in the five coupled models, which increases total annual rainfall and therefore the stable forest area along the southern Amazon, but only when deforestation is not included in the simulations 4 , 37 . Nonetheless, both model ensembles agree that bistable regions will expand deeper into the Amazon, increasing the risk of critical transitions due to disturbances (as implied by the existence of alternative stable states; Extended Data Fig. 1 ).

Disturbance regimes

Within the remaining Amazon forest area, 17% has been degraded by human disturbances 38 , such as logging, edge effects and understory fires, but if we consider also the impacts from repeated extreme drought events in the past decades, 38% of the Amazon could be degraded 39 . Increasing rainfall variability is causing extreme drought events to become more widespread and frequent across the Amazon (Fig. 1c ), together with extreme wet events and convective storms that result in more windthrow disturbances 40 . Drought regimes are intensifying across the region 41 , possibly due to deforestation 42 that continues to expand within the system (Extended Data Fig. 5 ). As a result, new fire regimes are burning larger forest areas 43 , emitting more carbon to the atmosphere 44 and forcing IPLCs to readapt 45 . Road networks (Fig. 1d ) facilitate illegal activities, promoting more deforestation, logging and fire spread throughout the core of the Amazon forest 38 , 39 . The impacts of these pervasive disturbances on biodiversity and on IPLCs will probably affect ecosystem adaptability (Box 1 ), and consequently forest resilience to global changes.

Currently, 86% of the Amazon biome may be in a stable forest state (Extended Data Fig. 1b ), but some of these stable forests are showing signs of fragility 33 . For instance, field evidence from long-term monitoring sites across the Amazon shows that tree mortality rates are increasing in most sites, reducing carbon storage 46 , while favouring the replacement by drought-affiliated species 47 . Aircraft measurements of vertical carbon flux between the forest and atmosphere reveal how southeastern forests are already emitting more carbon than they absorb, probably because of deforestation and fire 48 .

As bistable forests expand deeper into the system (Fig. 1b and Extended Data Fig. 4 ), the distribution of compounding disturbances may indicate where ecosystem transitions are more likely to occur in the coming decades (Fig. 1f ). For this, we combined spatial information on warming and drying trends, repeated extreme drought events, together with road networks, as proxy for future deforestation and degradation 38 , 39 . We also included protected areas and Indigenous territories as areas with high forest governance, where deforestation and fire regimes are among the lowest within the Amazon 49 (Fig. 1e ). This simple additive approach does not consider synergies between compounding disturbances that could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions. However, by exploring only these factors affecting forest resilience and simplifying the enormous Amazonian complexity, we aimed to produce a simple and comprehensive map that can be useful for guiding future governance. We found that 10% of the Amazon forest biome has a relatively high transition potential (more than 2 disturbance types; Fig. 1f ), including bistable forests that could transition into a low tree cover state near savannas of Guyana, Venezuela, Colombia and Peru, as well as stable forests that could transition into alternative compositional states within the central Amazon, such as along the BR319 and Trans-Amazonian highways. Smaller areas with high transition potential were found scattered within deforestation frontiers, where most forests have been carved by roads 50 , 51 . Moreover, 47% of the biome has a moderate transition potential (more than 1 disturbance type; Fig. 1f ), including relatively remote parts of the central Amazon where warming trends and repeated extreme drought events overlap (Fig. 1a,c ). By contrast, large remote areas covering 53% of the biome have low transition potential, mostly reflecting the distribution of protected areas and Indigenous territories (Fig. 1e ). If these estimates, however, considered projections from CMIP6 models and their relatively broader areas of bistability (Extended Data Fig. 4 ), the proportion of the Amazon forest that could transition into a low tree cover state would be much larger.

Box 1 Ecosystem adaptability

We define ‘ecosystem adaptability’ as the capacity of an ecosystem to reorganize and persist in the face of environmental changes. In the past, many internal mechanisms have probably contributed to ecosystem adaptability, allowing Amazonian forests to persist during times of climate change. In this section we synthesize two of these internal mechanisms, which are now being undermined by global change.

Biodiversity

Amazonian forests are home to more than 15,000 tree species, of which 1% are dominant and the other 99% are mostly rare 107 . A single forest hectare in the central and northwestern Amazon can contain more than 300 tree species (Extended Data Fig. 7a ). Such tremendous tree species diversity can increase forest resilience by different mechanisms. Tree species complementarity increases carbon storage, accelerating forest recovery after disturbances 108 . Tree functional diversity increases forest adaptability to climate chance by offering various possibilities of functioning 99 . Rare species provide ‘ecological redundancy’, increasing opportunities for replacement of lost functions when dominant species disappear 109 . Diverse forests are also more likely to resist severe disturbances owing to ‘response diversity’ 110 —that is, some species may die, while others persist. For instance, in the rainy western Amazon, drought-resistant species are rare but present within tree communities 111 , implying that they could replace the dominant drought-sensitive species in a drier future. Diversity of other organisms, such as frugivores and pollinators, also increases forest resilience by stabilizing ecological networks 15 , 112 . Considering that half of Amazonian tree species are estimated to become threatened (IUCN Red list) by 2050 owing to climate change, deforestation and degradation 8 , biodiversity losses could contribute to further reducing forest resilience.

Indigenous peoples and local communities

Globally, Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) have a key role in maintaining ecosystems resilient to global change 113 . Humans have been present in the Amazon for at least 12,000 years 114 and extensively managing landscapes for 6,000 years 22 . Through diverse ecosystem management practices, humans built thousands of earthworks and ‘Amazon Dark Earth’ sites, and domesticated plants and landscapes across the Amazon forest 115 , 116 . By creating new cultural niches, humans partly modified the Amazonian flora 117 , 118 , increasing their food security even during times of past climate change 119 , 120 without the need for large-scale deforestation 117 . Today, IPLCs have diverse ecological knowledge about Amazonian plants, animals and landscapes, which allows them to quickly identify and respond to environmental changes with mitigation and adaptation practices 68 , 69 . IPLCs defend their territories against illegal deforestation and land use disturbances 49 , 113 , and they also promote forest restoration by expanding diverse agroforestry systems 121 , 122 . Amazonian regions with the highest linguistic diversity (a proxy for ecological knowledge diversity 123 ) are found in peripheral parts of the system, particularly in the north-west (Extended Data Fig. 7b ). However, consistent loss of Amazonian languages is causing an irreversible disruption of ecological knowledge systems, mostly driven by road construction 7 . Continued loss of ecological knowledge will undermine the capacity of IPLCs to manage and protect Amazonian forests, further reducing their resilience to global changes 9 .

CO 2 fertilization

Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are expected to increase the photosynthetic rates of trees, accelerating forest growth and biomass accumulation on a global scale 52 . In addition, CO 2 may reduce water stress by increasing tree water-use efficiency 29 . As result, a ‘CO 2 fertilization effect’ could increase forest resilience to climatic variability 53 , 54 . However, observations from across the Amazon 46 suggest that CO 2 -driven accelerations of tree growth may have contributed to increasing tree mortality rates (trees grow faster but also die earlier), which could eventually neutralize the forest carbon sink in the coming decades 55 . Moreover, increases in tree water-use efficiency may reduce forest transpiration and consequently atmospheric moisture flow across the Amazon 53 , 56 , potentially reducing forest resilience in the southwest of the biome 4 , 37 . Experimental evidence suggests that CO 2 fertilization also depends on soil nutrient availability, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus 57 , 58 . Thus, it is possible that in the fertile soils of the western Amazon and Várzea floodplains, forests may gain resilience from increasing atmospheric CO 2 (depending on how it affects tree mortality rates), whereas on the weathered (nutrient-poor) soils across most of the Amazon basin 59 , forests might not respond to atmospheric CO 2 increase, particularly on eroded soils within deforestation frontiers 60 . In sum, owing to multiple interacting factors, potential responses of Amazonian forests to CO 2 fertilization are still poorly understood. Forest responses depend on scale, with resilience possibly increasing at the local scale on relatively more fertile soils, but decreasing at the regional scale due to reduced atmospheric moisture flow.

Local versus systemic transition

Environmental heterogeneity.

Environmental heterogeneity can reduce the risk of systemic transition (large-scale forest collapse) because when stressing conditions intensify (for example, rainfall declines), heterogeneous forests may transition gradually (first the less resilient forest patches, followed by the more resilient ones), compared to homogeneous forests that may transition more abruptly 17 (all forests transition in synchrony). Amazonian forests are heterogeneous in their resilience to disturbances, which may have contributed to buffering large-scale transitions in the past 37 , 61 , 62 . At the regional scale, a fundamental heterogeneity factor is rainfall and how it translates into water stress. Northwestern forests rarely experience water stress, which makes them relatively more resilient than southeastern forests that may experience water stress in the dry season, and therefore are more likely to shift into a low tree cover state. As a result of low exposure to water deficit, most northwestern forests have trees with low drought resistance and could suffer massive mortality if suddenly exposed to severe water stress 32 . However, this scenario seems unlikely to occur in the near future (Fig. 1 ). By contrast, most seasonal forest trees have various strategies to cope with water deficit owing to evolutionary and adaptive responses to historical drought events 32 , 63 . These strategies may allow seasonal forests to resist current levels of rainfall fluctuations 32 , but seasonal forests are also closer to the critical rainfall thresholds (Extended Data Fig. 1 ) and may experience unprecedented water stress in the coming decades (Fig. 1 ).

Other key heterogeneity factors (Extended Data Fig. 6 ) include topography, which determines plant access to groundwater 64 , and seasonal flooding, which increases forest vulnerability to wildfires 65 . Future changes in rainfall regimes will probably affect hydrological regimes 66 , exposing plateau (hilltop) forests to unprecedented water stress, and floodplain forests to extended floods, droughts and wildfires. Soil fertility is another heterogeneity factor that may affect forest resilience 59 , and which may be undermined by disturbances that cause topsoil erosion 60 . Moreover, as human disturbances intensify throughout the Amazon (Fig. 1 ), the spread of invasive grasses and fires can make the system increasingly homogeneous. Effects of heterogeneity on Amazon forest resilience have been poorly investigated so far (but see refs. 37 , 61 , 62 ) and many questions remain open, such as how much heterogeneity exists in the system and whether it can mitigate a systemic transition.

Sources of connectivity

Connectivity across Amazonian landscapes and regions can contribute to synchronize forest dynamics, causing different forests to behave more similarly 17 . Depending on the processes involved, connectivity can either increase or decrease the risk of systemic transition 17 . For instance, connectivity may facilitate forest recovery after disturbances through seed dispersal, but also it may spread disturbances, such as fire. In the Amazon, an important source of connectivity enhancing forest resilience is atmospheric moisture flow westward (Fig. 2 ), partly maintained by forest evapotranspiration 4 , 37 , 67 . Another example of connectivity that may increase social-ecological resilience is knowledge exchange among IPLCs about how to adapt to global change 68 , 69 (see Box 1 ). However, complex systems such as the Amazon can be particularly vulnerable to sources of connectivity that spread disturbances and increase the risk of systemic transition 70 . For instance, roads carving through the forest are well-known sources of illegal activities, such as logging and burning, which increase forest flammability 38 , 39 .

figure 2

Brazil holds 60% of the Amazon forest biome and has a major responsibility towards its neighbouring countries in the west. Brazil is the largest supplier of rainfall to western Amazonian countries. Up to one-third of the total annual rainfall in Amazonian territories of Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador depends on water originating from Brazil’s portion of the Amazon forest. This international connectivity illustrates how policies related to deforestation, especially in the Brazilian Amazon, will affect the climate in other countries. Arrow widths are proportional to the percentage of the annual rainfall received by each country within their Amazonian areas. We only show flows with percentages higher than 10% (see  Methods for details).

Five critical drivers of water stress

Global warming.

Most CMIP6 models agree that a large-scale dieback of the Amazon is unlikely in response to global warming above pre-industrial levels 2 , but this ecosystem response is based on certain assumptions, such as a large CO 2 -fertilization effect 53 . Forests across the Amazon are already responding with increasing tree mortality rates that are not simulated by these models 46 , possibly because of compounding disturbance regimes (Fig. 1 ). Nonetheless, a few global climate models 3 , 14 , 71 , 72 , 73 , 74 indicate a broad range for a potential critical threshold in global warming between 2 and 6 °C (Fig. 3a ). These contrasting results can be explained by general differences between numerical models and their representation of the complex Amazonian system. While some models with dynamic vegetation indicate local-scale tipping events in peripheral parts of the Amazon 5 , 6 , other models suggest an increase in biomass and forest cover (for example, in refs. 53 , 54 ). For instance, a study found that when considering only climatic variability, a large-scale Amazon forest dieback is unlikely, even under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario 75 . However, most updated CMIP6 models agree that droughts in the Amazon region will increase in length and intensity, and that exceptionally hot droughts will become more common 2 , creating conditions that will probably boost other types of disturbances, such as large and destructive forest fires 76 , 77 . To avoid broad-scale ecosystem transitions due to synergies between climatic and land use disturbances (Fig. 3b ), we suggest a safe boundary for the Amazon forest at 1.5 °C for global warming above pre-industrial levels, in concert with the Paris Agreement goals.

figure 3

a , Five critical drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests affect (directly or indirectly) the underlying tipping point of the system. For each driver, we indicate potential critical thresholds and safe boundaries that define a safe operating space for keeping the Amazon forest resilient 11 , 12 . We followed the precautionary principle and considered the most conservative thresholds within the ranges, when confidence was low. b , Conceptual model showing how the five drivers may interact (arrows indicate positive effects) and how these interactions may strengthen a positive feedback between water stress and forest loss. These emerging positive feedback loops could accelerate a systemic transition of the Amazon forest 15 . At global scales, driver 1 (global warming) intensifies with greenhouse gas emissions, including emissions from deforestation. At local scales, driver 5 (accumulated deforestation) intensifies with land use changes. Drivers 2 to 4 (regional rainfall conditions) intensify in response to drivers 1 and 5. The intensification of these drivers may cause widespread tree mortality for instance because of extreme droughts and fires 76 . Water stress affects vegetation resilience globally 79 , 104 , but other stressors, such as heat stress 34 , 36 , may also have a role. In the coming decades, these five drivers could change at different rates, with some approaching a critical threshold faster than others. Therefore, monitoring them separately can provide vital information to guide mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Annual rainfall

Satellite observations of tree cover distributions across tropical South America suggest a critical threshold between 1,000 and 1,250 mm of annual rainfall 78 , 79 . On the basis of our reanalysis using tree cover data from the Amazon basin (Extended Data Fig. 1a ), we confirm a potential threshold at 1,000 mm of annual rainfall (Fig. 3a ), below which forests become rare and unstable. Between 1,000 and 1,800 mm of annual rainfall, high and low tree cover ecosystems exist in the Amazon as two alternative stable states (see Extended Data Table 2 for uncertainty ranges). Within the bistability range in annual rainfall conditions, forests are relatively more likely to collapse when severely disturbed, when compared to forests in areas with annual rainfall above 1,800 mm (Extended Data Fig. 1a ). For floodplain ecosystems covering 14% of the forest biome, a different critical threshold has been estimated at 1,500 mm of annual rainfall 65 , implying that floodplain forests may be the first to collapse in a drier future. To avoid local-scale ecosystem transitions due to compounding disturbances, we suggest a safe boundary in annual rainfall conditions at 1,800 mm.

Rainfall seasonality intensity

Satellite observations of tree cover distributions across tropical South America suggest a critical threshold in rainfall seasonality intensity at −400 mm of the maximum cumulative water deficit 37 , 80 (MCWD). Our reanalysis of the Amazon basin (Extended Data Fig. 1c ) confirms the critical threshold at approximately −450 mm in the MCWD (Fig. 3a ), and suggests a bistability range between approximately −350 and −450 mm (see Extended Data Table 2 for uncertainty ranges), in which forests are more likely to collapse when severely disturbed than forests in areas with MCWD below −350 mm. To avoid local-scale ecosystem transitions due to compounding disturbances, we suggest a safe boundary of MCWD at −350 mm.

Dry season length

Satellite observations of tree cover distributions across tropical South America suggest a critical threshold at 7 months of dry season length 79 (DSL). Our reanalysis of the Amazon basin (Extended Data Fig. 1d ) suggests a critical threshold at eight months of DSL (Fig. 3a ), with a bistability range between approximately five and eight months (see Extended Data Table 2 for uncertainty ranges), in which forests are more likely to collapse when severely disturbed than forests in areas with DSL below five months. To avoid local-scale ecosystem transitions due to compounding disturbances, we suggest a safe boundary of DSL at five months.

Accumulated deforestation

A potential vegetation model 81 found a critical threshold at 20% of accumulated deforestation (Fig. 3a ) by simulating Amazon forest responses to different scenarios of accumulated deforestation (with associated fire events) and of greenhouse gas emissions, and by considering a CO 2 fertilization effect of 25% of the maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate. Beyond 20% deforestation, forest mortality accelerated, causing large reductions in regional rainfall and consequently an ecosystem transition of 50−60% of the Amazon, depending on the emissions scenario. Another study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline 67 by 40% (ref.  67 ), potentially causing more forest loss 4 , 37 . Other more recent models incorporating fire disturbances support a potential broad-scale transition of the Amazon forest, simulating a biomass loss of 30–40% under a high-emission scenario 5 , 82 (SSP5–8.5 at 4 °C). The Amazon biome has already lost 13% of its original forest area due to deforestation 83 (or 15% of the biome if we consider also young secondary forests 83 that provide limited contribution to moisture flow 84 ). Among the remaining old-growth forests, at least 38% have been degraded by land use disturbances and repeated extreme droughts 39 , with impacts on moisture recycling that are still uncertain. Therefore, to avoid broad-scale ecosystem transitions due to runaway forest loss (Fig. 3b ), we suggest a safe boundary of accumulated deforestation of 10% of the original forest biome cover, which requires ending large-scale deforestation and restoring at least 5% of the biome.

Three alternative ecosystem trajectories

Degraded forest.

In stable forest regions of the Amazon with annual rainfall above 1,800 mm (Extended Data Fig. 1b ), forest cover usually recovers within a few years or decades after disturbances, yet forest composition and functioning may remain degraded for decades or centuries 84 , 85 , 86 , 87 . Estimates from across the Amazon indicate that approximately 30% of areas previously deforested are in a secondary forest state 83 (covering 4% of the biome). An additional 38% of the forest biome has been damaged by extreme droughts, fires, logging and edge effects 38 , 39 . These forests may naturally regrow through forest succession, yet because of feedbacks 15 , succession can become arrested, keeping forests persistently degraded (Fig. 4 ). Different types of degraded forests have been identified in the Amazon, each one associated with a particular group of dominant opportunistic plants. For instance, Vismia forests are common in old abandoned pastures managed with fire 85 , and are relatively stable, because Vismia trees favour recruitment of Vismia seedlings in detriment of other tree species 88 , 89 . Liana forests can also be relatively stable, because lianas self-perpetuate by causing physical damage to trees, allowing lianas to remain at high density 90 , 91 . Liana forests are expected to expand with increasing aridity, disturbance regimes and CO 2 fertilization 90 . Guadua bamboo forests are common in the southwestern Amazon 92 , 93 . Similar to lianas, bamboos self-perpetuate by causing physical damage to trees and have been expanding over burnt forests in the region 92 . Degraded forests are usually dominated by native opportunistic species, and their increasing expansion over disturbed forests could affect Amazonian functioning and resilience in the future.

figure 4

From examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories related to the types of disturbances, feedbacks and local environmental conditions. These alternative trajectories may be irreversible or transient depending on the strength of the novel interactions 15 . Particular combinations of interactions (arrows show positive effects described in the literature) may form feedback loops 15 that propel the ecosystem through these trajectories. In the ‘degraded forest’ trajectory, feedbacks often involve competition between trees and other opportunistic plants 85 , 90 , 92 , as well as interactions between deforestation, fire and seed limitation 84 , 87 , 105 . At the landscape scale, secondary forests are more likely to be cleared than mature forests, thus keeping forests persistently young and landscapes fragmented 83 . In the ‘degraded open-canopy ecosystem’ trajectory, feedbacks involve interactions among low tree cover and fire 97 , soil erosion 60 , seed limitation 105 , invasive grasses and opportunistic plants 96 . At the regional scale, a self-reinforcing feedback between forest loss and reduced atmospheric moisture flow may increase the resilience of these open-canopy degraded ecosystems 42 . In the ‘white-sand savanna’ trajectory, the main feedbacks result from interactions among low tree cover and fire, soil erosion, and seed limitation 106 . Bottom left, floodplain forest transition to white-sand savanna after repeated fires (photo credit: Bernardo Flores); bottom centre, forest transition to degraded open-canopy ecosystem after repeated fires (photo credit: Paulo Brando); bottom right, forest transition to Vismia degraded forest after slash-and-burn agriculture (photo credit: Catarina Jakovac).

White-sand savanna

White-sand savannas are ancient ecosystems that occur in patches within the Amazon forest biome, particularly in seasonally waterlogged or flooded areas 94 . Their origin has been attributed to geomorphological dynamics and past Indigenous fires 26 , 27 , 94 . In a remote landscape far from large agricultural frontiers, within a stable forest region of the Amazon (Extended Data Fig. 1b ), satellite and field evidence revealed that white-sand savannas are expanding where floodplain forests were repeatedly disturbed by fires 95 . After fire, the topsoil of burnt forests changes from clayey to sandy, favouring the establishment of savanna trees and native herbaceous plants 95 . Shifts from forest to white-sand savanna (Fig. 4 ) are probably stable (that is, the ecosystem is unlikely to recover back to forest within centuries), based on the relatively long persistence of these savannas in the landscape 94 . Although these ecosystem transitions have been confirmed only in the Negro river basin (central Amazon), floodplain forests in other parts of the Amazon were shown to be particularly vulnerable to collapse 45 , 64 , 65 .

Degraded open-canopy ecosystem

In bistable regions of the Amazon forest with annual rainfall below 1,800 mm (Extended Data Fig. 1b ), shifts to degraded open-canopy ecosystems are relatively common after repeated disturbances by fire 45 , 96 . The ecosystem often becomes dominated by fire-tolerant tree and palm species, together with alien invasive grasses and opportunistic herbaceous plants 96 , 97 , such as vines and ferns. Estimates from the southern Amazon indicate that 5−6% of the landscape has already shifted into degraded open-canopy ecosystems due to deforestation and fires 45 , 96 . It is still unclear, however, whether degraded open-canopy ecosystems are stable or transient (Fig. 4 ). Palaeorecords from the northern Amazon 98 show that burnt forests may spend centuries in a degraded open-canopy state before they eventually shift into a savanna. Today, invasion by alien flammable grasses is a novel stabilizing mechanism 96 , 97 , but the long-term persistence of these grasses in the ecosystem is also uncertain.

Prospects for modelling Amazon forest dynamics

Several aspects of the Amazon forest system may help improve earth system models (ESMs) to more accurately simulate ecosystem dynamics and feedbacks with the climate system. Simulating individual trees can improve the representation of growth and mortality dynamics, which ultimately affect forest dynamics (for example, refs. 61 , 62 , 99 ). Significant effects on simulation results may emerge from increasing plant functional diversity, representation of key physiological trade-offs and other features that determine water stress on plants, and also allowing for community adjustment to environmental heterogeneity and global change 32 , 55 , 62 , 99 . For now, most ESMs do not simulate a dynamic vegetation cover (Supplementary Table 1 ) and biomes are represented based on few plant functional types, basically simulating monocultures on the biome level. In reality, tree community adaptation to a heterogenous and dynamic environment feeds into the whole-system dynamics, and not covering such aspects makes a true Amazon tipping assessment more challenging.

Our findings also indicate that Amazon forest resilience is affected by compounding disturbances (Fig. 1 ). ESMs need to include different disturbance scenarios and potential synergies for creating more realistic patterns of disturbance regimes. For instance, logging and edge effects can make a forest patch more flammable 39 , but these disturbances are often not captured by ESMs. Improvements in the ability of ESMs to predict future climatic conditions are also required. One way is to identify emergent constraints 100 , lowering ESMs variations in their projections of the Amazonian climate. Also, fully coupled ESMs simulations are needed to allow estimates of land-atmosphere feedbacks, which may adjust climatic and ecosystem responses. Another way to improve our understanding of the critical thresholds for Amazonian resilience and how these link to climatic conditions and to greenhouse gas concentrations is through factorial simulations with ESMs. In sum, although our study may not deliver a set of reliable and comprehensive equations to parameterize processes impacting Amazon forest dynamics, required for implementation in ESMs, we highlight many of the missing modelled processes.

Implications for governance

Forest resilience is changing across the Amazon as disturbance regimes intensify (Fig. 1 ). Although most recent models agree that a large-scale collapse of the Amazon forest is unlikely within the twenty-first century 2 , our findings suggest that interactions and synergies among different disturbances (for example, frequent extreme hot droughts and forest fires) could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions even in remote and central parts of the system 101 . In 2012, Davidson et al. 102 demonstrated how the Amazon basin was experiencing a transition to a ‘disturbance-dominated regime’ related to climatic and land use changes, even though at the time, annual deforestation rates were declining owing to new forms of governance 103 . Recent policy and approaches to Amazon development, however, accelerated deforestation that reached 13,000 km 2 in the Brazilian Amazon in 2021 ( http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br ). The southeastern region has already turned into a source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere 48 . The consequences of losing the Amazon forest, or even parts of it, imply that we must follow a precautionary approach—that is, we must take actions that contribute to maintain the Amazon forest within safe boundaries 12 . Keeping the Amazon forest resilient depends firstly on humanity’s ability to stop greenhouse gas emissions, mitigating the impacts of global warming on regional climatic conditions 2 . At the local scale, two practical and effective actions need to be addressed to reinforce forest–rainfall feedbacks that are crucial for the resilience of the Amazon forest 4 , 37 : (1) ending deforestation and forest degradation; and (2) promoting forest restoration in degraded areas. Expanding protected areas and Indigenous territories can largely contribute to these actions. Our findings suggest a list of thresholds, disturbances and feedbacks that, if well managed, can help maintain the Amazon forest within a safe operating space for future generations.

Our study site was the area of the Amazon basin, considering large areas of tropical savanna biome along the northern portion of the Brazilian Cerrado, the Gran Savana in Venezuela and the Llanos de Moxos in Bolivia, as well as the Orinoco basin to the north, and eastern parts of the Andes to the west. The area includes also high Andean landscapes with puna and paramo ecosystems. We chose this contour to allow better communication with the MapBiomas Amazonian Project (2022; https://amazonia.mapbiomas.org ). For specific interpretation of our results, we considered the contour of the current extension of the Amazon forest biome, which excludes surrounding tropical savanna biomes.

We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) data (MOD44B version 6; https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod44bv006/ ) for the year 2001 at 250-m resolution 124 to reanalyse tree cover distributions within the Amazon basin, refining estimates of bistability ranges and critical thresholds in rainfall conditions from previous studies. Although MODIS VCF can contain errors within lower tree cover ranges and should not be used to test for bistability between grasslands and savannas 125 , the dataset is relatively robust for assessing bistability within the tree cover range of forests and savannas 126 , as also shown by low uncertainty (standard deviation of tree cover estimates) across the Amazon (Extended Data Fig. 8 ).

We used the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS; https://www.chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps ) 127 to estimate mean annual rainfall and rainfall seasonality for the present across the Amazon basin, based on monthly means from 1981 to 2020, at a 0.05° spatial resolution.

We used the Climatic Research Unit (CRU; https://www.uea.ac.uk/groups-and-centres/climatic-research-unit ) 128 to estimate mean annual temperature for the present across the Amazon basin, based on monthly means from 1981 to 2020, at a 0.5° spatial resolution.

To mask deforested areas until 2020, we used information from the MapBiomas Amazonia Project (2022), collection 3, of Amazonian Annual Land Cover and Land Use Map Series ( https://amazonia.mapbiomas.org ).

To assess forest fire distribution across the Amazon forest biome and in relation to road networks, we used burnt area fire data obtained from the AQUA sensor onboard the MODIS satellite. Only active fires with a confidence level of 80% or higher were selected. The data are derived from MODIS MCD14ML (collection 6) 129 , available in Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). The data were adjusted to a spatial resolution of 1 km.

Potential analysis

Using potential analysis 130 , an empirical stability landscape was constructed based on spatial distributions of tree cover (excluding areas deforested until 2020; https://amazonia.mapbiomas.org ) against mean annual precipitation, MCWD and DSL. Here we followed the methodology of Hirota et al. 104 . For bins of each of the variables, the probability density of tree cover was determined using the MATLAB function ksdensity. Local maxima of the resulting probability density function are considered to be stable equilibria, in which local maxima below a threshold value of 0.005 were ignored. Based on sensitivity tests (see below), we chose the intermediate values of the sensitivity parameter for each analysis, which resulted in the critical thresholds most similar to the ones previously published in the literature.

Sensitivity tests of the potential analysis

We smoothed the densities of tree cover with the MATLAB kernel smoothing function ksdensity. Following Hirota et al. 104 , we used a flexible bandwidth ( h ) according to Silverman’s rule of thumb 131 : h  = 1.06 σn 1/5 , where σ is the standard deviation of the tree cover distribution and n is the number of points. To ignore small bumps in the frequency distributions, we used a dimensionless sensitivity parameter. This parameter filters out weak modes in the distributions such that a higher value implies a stricter criterion to detect a significant mode. In the manuscript, we used a value of 0.005. For different values of this sensitivity parameter, we here test the estimated critical thresholds and bistability ranges (Extended Data Table 2 ). We inferred stable and unstable states of tree cover (minima and maxima in the potentials) for moving windows of the climatic variables. For mean annual precipitation, we used increments of 10 mm yr −1 between 0 and 3500 mm yr −1 . For dry season length, we used increments of 0.1 months between 0 and 12 months. For MCWD, we used increments of 10 mm between −800 mm and 0 mm.

Transition potential

We quantified a relative ecosystem transition potential across the Amazon forest biome (excluding accumulated deforestation; https://amazonia.mapbiomas.org ) to produce a simple spatial measure that can be useful for governance. For this, we combined information per pixel, at 5 km resolution, about different disturbances related to climatic and human disturbances, as well as high-governance areas within protected areas and Indigenous territories. We used values of significant slopes of the dry season (July–October) mean temperature between 1981 and 2020 ( P  < 0.1), estimated using simple linear regressions (at 0.5° resolution from CRU) (Fig. 1a ). Ecosystem stability classes (stable forest, bistable and stable savanna as in Extended Data Fig. 1 ) were estimated using simple linear regression slopes of annual rainfall between 1981 and 2020 ( P  < 0.1) (at 0.05° resolution from CHIRPS), which we extrapolated to 2050 (Fig. 1b and Extended Data Fig. 3 ). Distribution of areas affected by repeated extreme drought events (Fig. 1c ) were defined when the time series (2001–2018) of the MCWD reached two standard deviation anomalies from historical mean. Extreme droughts were obtained from Lapola et al. 39 , based on Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS 4.0) datasets for precipitation and evapotranspiration. The network of roads (paved and unpaved) across the Amazon forest biome (Fig. 1d ) was obtained from the Amazon Network of Georeferenced Socio-Environmental Information (RAISG; https://geo2.socioambiental.org/raisg ). Protected areas (PAs) and Indigenous territories (Fig. 1e ) were also obtained from RAISG, and include both sustainable-use and restricted-use protected areas managed by national or sub-national governments, together with officially recognized and proposed Indigenous territories. We combined these different disturbance layers by adding a value for each layer in the following way: (1) slopes of dry season temperature change (as in Fig. 1a , multiplied by 10, thus between −0.1 and +0.6); (2) ecosystem stability classes estimated for year 2050 (as in Fig. 1b ), with 0 for stable forest, +1 for bistable and +2 for stable savanna; (3) accumulated impacts from repeated extreme drought events (from 0 to 5 events), with +0.2 for each event; (4) road-related human impacts, with +1 for pixels within 10 km from a road; and (5) protected areas and Indigenous territories as areas with lower exposure to human (land use) disturbances, such as deforestation and forest fires, with −1 for pixels inside these areas. The sum of these layers revealed relative spatial variation in ecosystem transition potential by 2050 across the Amazon (Fig. 1f ), ranging from −1 (low potential) to 4 (very high potential).

Atmospheric moisture tracking

To determine the atmospheric moisture flows between the Amazonian countries, we use the Lagrangian atmospheric moisture tracking model UTrack 132 . The model tracks the atmospheric trajectories of parcels of moisture, updates their coordinates at each time step of 0.1 h and allocates moisture to a target location in case of precipitation. For each millimetre of evapotranspiration, 100 parcels are released into the atmosphere. Their trajectories are forced with evaporation, precipitation, and wind speed estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis product at 0.25° horizontal resolution for 25 atmospheric layers 133 . Here we use the runs from Tuinenburg et al. 134 , who published monthly climatological mean (2008–2017) moisture flows between each pair of 0.5° grid cells on Earth. We aggregated these monthly flows, resulting in mean annual moisture flows between all Amazonian countries during 2008–2017. For more details of the model runs, we refer to Tuinenburg and Staal 132 and Tuinenburg et al. 134 .

Reporting summary

Further information on research design is available in the  Nature Portfolio Reporting Summary linked to this article.

Data availability

All data supporting the findings of this study are openly available and their sources are presented in the Methods.

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Acknowledgements

This work was inspired by the Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA) initiative ( https://www.theamazonwewant.org/ ) that produced the first Amazon Assessment Report (2021). The authors thank C. Smith for providing deforestation rates data used in Extended Data Fig. 5b . B.M.F. and M.H. were supported by Instituto Serrapilheira (Serra-1709-18983) and C.J. (R-2111-40341). A.S. acknowledges funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) under the Talent Program Grant VI.Veni.202.170. R.A.B. and D.M.L. were supported by the AmazonFACE programme funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI). R.A.B. was additionally supported by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) Brazil project funded by the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), and D.M.L. was additionally supported by FAPESP (grant no. 2020/08940-6) and CNPq (grant no. 309074/2021-5). C.L. thanks CNPq (proc. 159440/2018-1 and 400369/2021-4) and Brazil LAB (Princeton University) for postdoctoral fellowships. A.E.-M. is supported by the UKRI TreeScapes MEMBRA (NE/V021346/1), the Royal Society (RGS\R1\221115), the ERC TreeMort project (758873) and the CESAB Syntreesys project. R.S.O. received a CNPq productivity scholarship and funding from NERC-FAPESP 2019/07773-1. S.B.H. is supported by the Geneva Graduate Institute research funds, and UCLA’s committee on research. J.A.M. is supported by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq grant 465501/2014-1; FAPESP grants 2014/50848-9, the National Coordination for Higher Education and Training (CAPES) grant 88887.136402-00INCT. L.S.B. received FAPESP grant 2013/50531-0. D.N. and N.B. acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820970. N.B. has received further funding from the Volkswagen foundation, the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 956170, as well as from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant no. 01LS2001A.

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Authors and affiliations.

Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil

Bernardo M. Flores, Carolina Levis & Marina Hirota

Geosciences Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council, Barcelona, Spain

Encarni Montoya

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany

Boris Sakschewski, Da Nian & Niklas Boers

Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Nathália Nascimento & Carlos A. Nobre

Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

Richard A. Betts

Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil

David M. Lapola

School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

Adriane Esquível-Muelbert

Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

Department of Plant Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil

Catarina Jakovac

Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil

Rafael S. Oliveira & Marina Hirota

Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil

Laura S. Borma & Luciana V. Gatti

Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany

Niklas Boers

Luskin School for Public Affairs and Institute of the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Susanna B. Hecht

Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands

Hans ter Steege

Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA), São José dos Campos, Brazil

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Sustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, NY, USA

Isabella L. Lucas

Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

Erika Berenguer

Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, São José dos Campos, Brazil

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Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

Caio R. C. Mattos

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Contributions

B.M.F. and M.H. conceived the study. B.M.F. reviewed the literature, with inputs from all authors. B.M.F., M.H., N.N., A.S., C.L., D.N, H.t.S. and C.R.C.M. assembled datasets. M.H. analysed temperature and rainfall trends. B.M.F. and N.N. produced the maps in main figures and calculated transition potential. A.S. performed potential analysis and atmospheric moisture tracking. B.M.F. produced the figures and wrote the manuscript, with substantial inputs from all authors. B.S. wrote the first version of the ‘Prospects for modelling Amazon forest dynamics’ section, with inputs from B.M.F and M.H.

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Correspondence to Bernardo M. Flores or Marina Hirota .

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended data fig. 1 alternative stable states in amazonian tree cover relative to rainfall conditions..

Potential analysis of tree cover distributions across rainfall gradients in the Amazon basin suggest the existence of critical thresholds and alternative stable states in the system. For this, we excluded accumulated deforestation until 2020 and included large areas of tropical savanna biome in the periphery of the Amazon basin (see  Methods ). Solid black lines indicate two stable equilibria. Small grey arrows indicate the direction towards equilibrium. (a) The overlap between ~ 1,000 and 1,800 mm of annual rainfall suggests that two alternative stable states may exist (bistability): a high tree cover state ~ 80 % (forests), and a low tree cover state ~ 20% (savannas). Tree cover around 50 % is rare, indicating an unstable state. Below 1,000 mm of annual rainfall, forests are rare, indicating a potential critical threshold for abrupt forest transition into a low tree cover state 79 , 104 (arrow 1). Between 1,000 and 1,800 mm of annual rainfall, the existence of alternative stable states implies that forests can shift to a low tree cover stable state in response to disturbances (arrow 2). Above 1,800 mm of annual rainfall, low tree cover becomes rare, indicating a potential critical threshold for an abrupt transition into a high tree cover state. In this stable forest state, forests are expected to always recover after disturbances (arrow 3), although composition may change 47 , 85 . (b) Currently, the stable savanna state covers 1 % of the Amazon forest biome, bistable areas cover 13 % of the biome (less than previous analysis using broader geographical ranges 78 ) and the stable forest state covers 86 % of the biome. Similar analyses using the maximum cumulative water deficit (c) and the dry season length (d) also suggest the existence of critical thresholds and alternative stable states. When combined, these critical thresholds in rainfall conditions could result in a tipping point of the Amazon forest in terms of water stress, but other factors may play a role, such as groundwater availability 64 . MODIS VCF may contain some level of uncertainty for low tree cover values, as shown by the standard deviation of tree cover estimates across the Amazon (Extended Data Fig. 8 ). However, the dataset is relatively robust for assessing bistability within the tree cover range between forest and savanna 126 .

Extended Data Fig. 2 Changes in dry-season temperatures across the Amazon basin.

(a) Dry season temperature averaged from mean annual data observed between 1981 and 2010. (b) Changes in dry season mean temperature based on the difference between the projected future (2021−2050) and observed historical (1981−2010) climatologies. Future climatology was obtained from the estimated slopes using historical CRU data 128 (shown in Fig. 1a ). (c, d) Changes in the distributions of dry season mean and maximum temperatures for the Amazon basin. (e) Correlation between dry-season mean and maximum temperatures observed (1981–2010) across the Amazon basin ( r  = 0.95).

Extended Data Fig. 3 Changes in annual precipitation and ecosystem stability across the Amazon forest biome.

(a) Slopes of annual rainfall change between 1981 and 2020 estimated using simple regressions (only areas with significant slopes, p  < 0.1). (b) Changes in ecosystem stability classes projected for year 2050, based on significant slopes in (a) and critical thresholds in annual rainfall conditions estimated in Extended Data Fig. 1 . Data obtained from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), at 0.05° spatial resolution 127 .

Extended Data Fig. 4 Changes in ecosystem stability by 2050 across the Amazon based on annual rainfall projected by CMIP6 models.

(a) Changes in stability classes estimated using an ensemble with the five CMIP6 models that include vegetation modules (coupled for climate-vegetation feedbacks) for two emission scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs). (b) Changes in stability classes estimated using an ensemble with all 33 CMIP6 models for the same emission scenarios. Stability changes may occur between stable forest (F), stable savanna (S) and bistable (B) classes, based on the bistability range of 1,000 – 1,800 mm in annual rainfall, estimated from current rainfall conditions (see Extended Data Fig. 1 ). Projections are based on climate models from the 6 th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). SSP2-4.5 is a low-emission scenario of future global warming and SSP5-8.5 is a high-emission scenario. The five coupled models analysed separately in (a) were: EC-Earth3-Veg, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, TaiESM1 and UKESM1-0-LL (Supplementary Information Table 1 ).

Extended Data Fig. 5 Deforestation continues to expand within the Amazon forest system.

(a) Map highlighting deforestation and fire activity between 2012 and 2021, a period when environmental governance began to weaken again, as indicated by increasing rates of annual deforestation in (b). In (b), annual deforestation rates for the entire Amazon biome were adapted with permission from Smith et al. 83 .

Extended Data Fig. 6 Environmental heterogeneity in the Amazon forest system.

Heterogeneity involves myriad factors, but two in particular, related to water availability, were shown to contribute to landscape-scale heterogeneity in forest resilience; topography shapes fine-scale variations of forest drought-tolerance 135 , 136 , and floodplains may reduce forest resilience by increasing vulnerability to wildfires 65 . Datasets: topography is shown by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM; https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/ ) 137 at 90 m resolution; floodplains and uplands are separated with the Amazon wetlands mask 138 at 90 m resolution.

Extended Data Fig. 7 The Amazon is biologically and culturally diverse.

(a) Tree species richness and (b) language richness illustrate how biological and cultural diversity varies across the Amazon. Diverse tree communities and human cultures contribute to increasing forest resilience in various ways that are being undermined by land-use and climatic changes. Datasets: (a) Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN, https://atdn.myspecies.info ). (b) World Language Mapping System (WLMS) obtained under license from Ethnologue 139 .

Extended Data Fig. 8 Uncertainty of the MODIS VCF dataset across the Amazon basin.

Map shows standard deviation (SD) of tree cover estimates from MODIS VCF 124 . We masked deforested areas until 2020 using the MapBiomas Amazonia Project (2022; https://amazonia.mapbiomas.org ).

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Flores, B.M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B. et al. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 626 , 555–564 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0

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Recycled plastic bottles in a plant

‘They lied’: plastics producers deceived public about recycling, report reveals

Companies knew for decades recycling was not viable but promoted it regardless, Center for Climate Integrity study finds

Plastic producers have known for more than 30 years that recycling is not an economically or technically feasible plastic waste management solution. That has not stopped them from promoting it, according to a new report.

“The companies lied,” said Richard Wiles, president of fossil-fuel accountability advocacy group the Center for Climate Integrity (CCI), which published the report. “It’s time to hold them accountable for the damage they’ve caused.”

Plastic, which is made from oil and gas, is notoriously difficult to recycle. Doing so requires meticulous sorting, since most of the thousands of chemically distinct varieties of plastic cannot be recycled together. That renders an already pricey process even more expensive. Another challenge: the material degrades each time it is reused, meaning it can generally only be reused once or twice.

The industry has known for decades about these existential challenges, but obscured that information in its marketing campaigns, the report shows .

The research draws on previous investigations as well as newly revealed internal documents illustrating the extent of this decades-long campaign.

Industry insiders over the past several decades have variously referred to plastic recycling as “uneconomical”, said it “cannot be considered a permanent solid waste solution”, and said it “cannot go on indefinitely”, the revelations show.

The authors say the evidence demonstrates that oil and petrochemical companies, as well as their trade associations, may have broken laws designed to protect the public from misleading marketing and pollution.

Single-use plastics

In the 1950s, plastic producers came up with an idea to ensure a continually growing market for their products: disposability.

“They knew if they focused on single-use [plastics] people would buy and buy and buy,” said Davis Allen, investigative researcher at the CCI and the report’s lead author.

At a 1956 industry conference, the Society of the Plastics Industry, a trade group, told producers to focus on “low cost, big volume” and “expendability” and to aim for materials to end up “in the garbage wagon”.

The Society of Plastics is now known as the Plastics Industry Association. “As is typical, instead of working together towards actual solutions to address plastic waste, groups like CCI choose to level political attacks instead of constructive solutions,” Matt Seaholm, president and CEO of the trade group, said in an emailed response to the report.

Over the following decades, the industry told the public that plastics can easily be tossed into landfills or burned in garbage incinerators. But in the 1980s, as municipalities began considering bans on grocery bags and other plastic products , the industry began promoting a new solution: recycling.

Recycling campaigns

The industry has long known that plastics recycling is not economically or practically viable, the report shows. An internal 1986 report from the trade association the Vinyl Institute noted that “recycling cannot be considered a permanent solid waste solution [to plastics], as it merely prolongs the time until an item is disposed of”.

In 1989, the founding director of the Vinyl Institute told attendees of a trade conference: “Recycling cannot go on indefinitely, and does not solve the solid waste problem.”

Despite this knowledge, the Society of the Plastics Industry established the Plastics Recycling Foundation in 1984, bringing together petrochemical companies and bottlers, and launched a campaign focused on the sector’s commitment to recycling.

In 1988, the trade group rolled out the “chasing arrows” – the widely recognized symbol for recyclable plastic – and began using it on packaging. Experts have long said the symbol is highly misleading, and recently federal regulators have echoed their concerns.

The Society of the Plastics Industry also established a plastics recycling research center at Rutgers University in New Jersey in 1985, one year after state lawmakers passed a mandatory recycling law. In 1988, industry group the Council for Solid Waste Solutions set up a recycling pilot project in St Paul, Minnesota, where the city council had just voted to ban the plastic polystyrene, or styrofoam.

And in the early 1990s, another industry group ran ads in Ladies’ Home Journal proclaiming: “A bottle can come back as a bottle, over and over again.”

All the while, behind closed doors, industry leaders maintained that recycling was not a real solution.

In 1994, a representative of Eastman Chemical spoke at an industry conference about the need for proper plastic recycling infrastructure. “While some day this may be a reality,” he said, “it is more likely that we will wake up and realize that we are not going to recycle our way out of the solid waste issue.” That same year, an Exxon employee told staffers at the American Plastics Council: “We are committed to the activities [of plastics recycling], but not committed to the results.”

“It’s clearly fraud they’re engaged in,” said Wiles.

The report does not allege that the companies broke specific laws. But Alyssa Johl, report co-author and attorney, said she suspects they violated public-nuisance, racketeering and consumer-fraud protections.

The industry’s misconduct continues today, the report alleges. Over the past several years, industry lobbying groups have promoted so-called chemical recycling, which breaks plastic polymers down into tiny molecules in order to make new plastics, synthetic fuels and other products. But the process creates pollution and is even more energy intensive than traditional plastic recycling.

The plastics sector has long known chemical recycling is also not a true solution to plastic waste, the report says. In a 1994 trade meeting, Exxon Chemical vice-president Irwin Levowitz called one common form of chemical recycling a “fundamentally uneconomical process”. And in 2003, a longtime trade consultant criticized the industry for promoting chemical recycling, calling it “another example of how non-science got into the minds of industry and environmental activists alike”.

“This is just another example, a new version, of the deception we saw before,” said Allen.

Seaholm, of the Plastics Industry Association, said the report “was created by an activist, anti-recycling organization and disregards the incredible investments in recycling technologies made by our industry.

“Unfortunately, they use outdated information and false claims to continue to mislead the public about recycling,” he added. He did not expand on which claims were outdated or false.

Legal ramifications

The report comes as the plastic industry and recycling are facing growing public scrutiny. Two years ago, California’s attorney general, Rob Bonta, publicly launched an investigation into fossil fuel and petrochemical producers “for their role in causing and exacerbating the global plastics pollution crisis”.

A toxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, last February also catalyzed a movement demanding a ban on vinyl chloride, a carcinogen used to make plastic. Last month, the EPA announced a health review of the chemical – the first step toward a potential ban .

In 2023, New York state also filed a lawsuit against PepsiCo, saying its single-use plastics violate public nuisance laws, and that the company misled consumers about the effectiveness of recycling.

The public is also increasingly concerned about the climate impact of plastic production and disposal, which account for 3.4% of all global greenhouse-gas emissions. In recent years, two dozen cities and states have sued the oil industry for covering up the dangers of the climate crisis. Similarly taking the oil and petrochemical industries to court for “knowingly deceiving” the public, said Wiles, could force them to change their business models.

“I think the first step in solving the problem is holding the companies accountable,” he said.

Judith Enck, a former regional administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency and founder of the advocacy group Beyond Plastics, called the analysis “very solid”.

“The report should be read by every attorney general in the nation and the Federal Trade Commission,” she said.

Brian Frosh, the former attorney general for the state of Maryland, said the report includes the kind of evidence he would not normally expect to see until a lawsuit has already gone through a process of discovery.

“If I were attorney general, based on what I read in CCI’s report, I’d feel comfortable pressing for an investigation and a lawsuit,” he said.

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99 million people included in largest global vaccine safety study

19 February 2024

Health and medicine , Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences

The Global Vaccine Data Network, hosted at the University of Auckland, utilises vast data sets to detect potential vaccine safety signals

Global Vaccine Data Network co-director Dr Helen Petousis-Harris: Latest study uses vast data sets to ensure vaccine safety.

The Global Vaccine Data Network (GVDN) assessed 13 neurological, blood, and heart related medical conditions to see if there was a greater risk of them occurring after receiving a Covid-19 vaccine in the latest of eight studies in the Global COVID Vaccine Safety (GCoVS) Project.

Recently published in the journal Vaccine , this observed versus expected rates study included 99 million people (over 23 million person-years of follow-up) from 10 collaborator sites across eight countries. The study identified the pre-established safety signals for myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and pericarditis (inflammation of the thin sac covering the heart) after mRNA vaccines, and Guillain-Barré syndrome (muscle weakness and changed sensation (feeling)), and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (type of blood clot in the brain) after viral vector vaccines.

Possible safety signals for transverse myelitis (inflammation of part of the spinal cord) after viral vector vaccines and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (inflammation and swelling in the brain and spinal cord) after viral vector and mRNA vaccines were identified.

So far, these findings were further investigated by the GVDN site in Victoria, Australia. Their study and results are described in the accompanying paper. Results are available for public review on GVDN’s interactive data dashboards.

Observed versus expected analyses are used to detect potential vaccine safety signals. These studies look at all people who received a vaccine and examine if there is a greater risk for developing a medical condition in various time periods after getting a vaccine compared with a period before the vaccine became available.

Lead author Kristýna Faksová of the Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark, remarked that use of a common protocol and aggregation of the data through the GVDN makes studies like this possible. “The size of the population in this study increased the possibility of identifying rare potential vaccine safety signals,” she explains. “Single sites or regions are unlikely to have a large enough population to detect very rare signals.”

By making the data dashboards publicly available, we are able to support greater transparency, and stronger communications to the health sector and public.

Associate Professor Helen Petousis-Harris Co-Director, Global Vaccine Data Network hosted at University of Auckland

GVDN Co-Director Dr. Steven Black said, “GVDN supports a coordinated global effort to assess vaccine safety and effectiveness so that vaccine questions can be addressed in a more rapid, efficient, and cost-effective manner. We have a number of studies underway to build upon our understanding of vaccines and how we understand vaccine safety using big data.”

GVDN Co-Director Dr. Helen Petousis-Harris said, “By making the data dashboards publicly available, we are able to support greater transparency, and stronger communications to the health sector and public.”

The GCoVS Project was made possible with support by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to allow the comparison of the safety of vaccines across diverse global populations.  

About the Global Data Vaccine Network

Established in 2019 and with data sourced from millions of individuals across six continents, the GVDN collaborates with renowned research institutions, policy makers, and vaccine related organisations to establish a harmonised and evidence-based approach to vaccine safety and effectiveness.

The GVDN is supported by the Global Coordinating Centre based at Auckland UniServices Ltd, a not-for-profit, stand-alone company that provides support to researchers and is wholly owned by the University of Auckland. Aiming to gain a comprehensive understanding of vaccine safety and effectiveness profiles, the GVDN strives to create a safer immunisation landscape that empowers decision making for the global community. For further information, visit globalvaccinedatanetwork.org.

Disclaimer: This news release summarises the key findings of the GVDN observed versus expected study. To view the full publication in Vaccine, visit doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.01.100.

This project is supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) as part of a financial assistance award totalling US$10,108,491 with 100% percentage funded by CDC/HHS. The contents are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official views of, nor an endorsement by, CDC/HHS, or the U.S. Government. For more information, please visit cdc.gov

Media inquiries: gvdn@auckland.ac.nz and communications@univervices.co.nz

Bloomberg

  • Largest Covid Vaccine Study Yet Finds Links to Health Conditions

(Bloomberg) -- Vaccines that protect against severe illness, death and lingering long Covid symptoms from a coronavirus infection were linked to small increases in neurological, blood, and heart-related conditions in the largest global vaccine safety study to date.

The rare events — identified early in the pandemic — included a higher risk of heart-related inflammation from mRNA shots made by Pfizer Inc., BioNTech SE, and Moderna Inc., and an increased risk of a type of blood clot in the brain after immunization with viral-vector vaccines such as the one developed by the University of Oxford and made by AstraZeneca Plc. 

The viral-vector jabs were also tied to an increased risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome , a neurological disorder in which the immune system mistakenly attacks the peripheral nervous system.

More than 13.5 billion doses of Covid vaccines have been administered globally over the past three years, saving over 1 million lives in Europe alone. Still, a small proportion of people immunized were injured by the shots, stoking debate about their benefits versus harms.

The new research, by the Global Vaccine Data Network, was published in the journal Vaccine last week, with the data made available via interactive dashboards to show methodology and specific findings. 

Read More: Covid Test Failures Highlight Evolving Relationship With Virus

The research looked for 13 medical conditions that the group considered “adverse events of special interest” among 99 million vaccinated individuals in eight countries, aiming to identify higher-than-expected cases after a Covid shot. The use of aggregated data increased the possibility of identifying rare safety signals that might have been missed when looking only at smaller populations.

Myocarditis , or inflammation of the heart muscle, was consistently identified following a first, second and third dose of mRNA vaccines, the study found. The highest increase in the observed-to-expected ratio was seen after a second jab with the Moderna shot. A first and fourth dose of the same vaccine was also tied to an increase in pericarditis, or inflammation of the thin sac covering the heart. 

Safety Signals

Researchers found a statistically significant increase in cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome within 42 days of an initial Oxford-developed ChAdOx1 or “Vaxzevria” shot that wasn’t observed with mRNA vaccines. Based on the background incidence of the condition, 66 cases were expected — but 190 events were observed. 

ChAdOx1 was linked to a threefold increase in cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, a type of blood clot in the brain, identified in 69 events, compared with an expected 21. The small risk led to the vaccine’s withdrawal or restriction in Denmark and multiple other countries. Myocarditis was also linked to a third dose of ChAdOx1 in some, but not all, populations studied.

Possible safety signals for transverse myelitis — spinal cord inflammation — after viral-vector vaccines were identified in the study. So was acute disseminated encephalomyelitis — inflammation and swelling in the brain and spinal cord — after both viral-vector and mRNA vaccines. 

Listen to the  Big Take  podcast on  iHeart ,  Apple Podcasts ,  Spotify  and the Bloomberg Terminal.  Read the transcript .

Seven cases of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis after vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were observed, versus an expectation of two.  

The adverse events of special interest were selected based on pre-established associations with immunization, what was already known about immune-related conditions and pre-clinical research. The study didn’t monitor for postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome , or POTS, that some research has linked with Covid vaccines.

Exercise intolerance, excessive fatigue, numbness and “brain fog” were among common symptoms identified in more than 240 adults experiencing chronic post-vaccination syndrome in a separate study conducted by the Yale School of Medicine. The cause of the syndrome isn’t yet known, and it has no diagnostic tests or proven remedies.

Read More: Strenuous Exercise May Harm Long Covid Sufferers, Study Shows

The Yale research aims to understand the condition to relieve the suffering of those affected and improve the safety of vaccines, said Harlan Krumholz, a principal investigator of the study, and director of the Yale New Haven Hospital Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation. 

Read this next :  Why Driving a Few Miles Can Save Patients a Fortune on Health Care

“Both things can be true,” Krumholz said in an interview. “They can save millions of lives, and there can be a small number of people who’ve been adversely affected.” 

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‘everything has a potential risk’: largest covid-19 study finds link between vaccine & heart, brain disorders.

Tarik Minor , Anchor, I-TEAM reporter

The latest COVID-19 vaccine study is providing answers to one of the most asked questions since the vaccines were introduced: How will this impact my health?

Global COVID Vaccine Safety Project conducted the study with the collection of data from nearly 100 million people across eight countries.

Since the pandemic began in March 2020, nearly seven million people have died across the globe from COVID-19, including more than one million Americans. It’s estimated that 71% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

The report specifically looked at the adverse effects of the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines and found the following:

  • The study links vaccines to slight increases in neurological, blood and heart-related conditions like myocarditis, pericarditis and Guillan-Barre syndrome.
  • For instance, out of the more than 99 million people studied, researchers observed only 190 cases of Guillan-Barre Syndrome (in people who took the vaccine)
  • Researchers stressed the association between the vaccines and adverse side effects does not prove the vaccine was the root cause of the illness.

RELATED: How to get COVID-19 antiviral pills like Paxlovid | Paxlovid can lessen the chance of a severe COVID-19 illness. Why is it underused?

Elizabeth Foster wonders if the COVID-19 vaccination she took in 2020 has anything to do with the decline she said she’s experiencing in her health.

“I’m going through a lot of mental and physical things now and it wasn’t like that before,” she said.

Dr. Jonathan Kantor, who is an adjunct scholar at the Penn Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, reviewed the study and believes the vaccines’ benefits still outweigh the risks.

“I think what this study confirmed is pretty much what other smaller studies have said in the past. And that’s the following. Number one, vaccines have risks, I think only a fool would say vaccines don’t have risk,” Kantor said.

Kantor said the new research shouldn’t erode anyone’s trust in the vaccine, but instead prompt them to think about their medical condition and their need for protection.

“There’s no such thing as a drug that has an effect without a side effect, so everything has potential risk. The problem is what is the risk of the thing that you are trying to prevent?” Kantor said. “And that’s where it comes into play. So for example, for parents, right, if you’ve got a healthy three-year-old, who’s had COVID, four times already, well, then I’d say, ‘I don’t know what the benefit is that you’re going to get from getting that vaccine today.’”

But Kantor said the best scenario depends on the person.

“If you tell me that you’ve got an 84-year-old in a nursing home, that somehow came out of a time machine, and is now entering the world in 2020 and has never had a COVID vaccine. Well, for that person, I’d say, we really have to think about whether COVID vaccine makes sense for them,” he said.

Copyright 2024 by WJXT News4JAX - All rights reserved.

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